WASHINGTON: Not only did the top US diplomat's planned trip to Beijing get derailed by the political uproar caused by a rumored Chinese spy balloon over the United States, but it also threatens to scuttle efforts by both countries to stabilize their increasingly tense relationship. The United States' reaction to what appears to be a poorly timed spying operation will have long-term effects on efforts to stabilize already-low ties. A number of US lawmakers are requesting that Democrat President Joe Biden hold China accountable for what they consider an unacceptable violation of US sovereignty. Policy analysts said the administration could be hard-pressed to quickly revive the trip unless China offers serious gestures of goodwill. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he would be prepared to visit Beijing "when conditions allow." China's "laughable alibi" that the aircraft was an errant weather balloon, according to Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for Asia under Barack Obama at the time, was not helpful. "There's no guarantee the two sides can successfully resurrect the 'Bali' momentum," Russel said, referring to the November meeting in Indonesia between Vice President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, where they agreed to increase communications. "This incident has soured the atmosphere and hardened positions." In August of last year, when the then-President of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan, ties between the two superpowers deteriorated to their lowest point in decades, prompting Beijing to hold military drills near the Chinese-claimed island. Since then, the Biden administration has stated that it intends to establish a "floor" for the relationship and prevent rivalry from developing into conflict. However, Republicans, who control the House and have been quick to criticize Biden regarding the balloon and ask how it was allowed into US airspace, are already working on ways to investigate potential threats from the United States' top geopolitical rival. CALLS TO SHOTDOWN The Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, demanded to know why the administration had not shot down the balloon on Friday. He claimed that the president had allowed the balloon to pose "a direct and ongoing national security threat to the US homeland." Despite the fact that such operations in recent years have been carried out from internationally recognized waters and airspace, China has frequently voiced its displeasure with US ships and aircraft monitoring its expanding military. China's mood was also pessimistic in light of the balloon. The government expressed regret over the erroneous course taken by an "airship," which was used for civilian meteorological and other scientific research. However, some domestic Chinese commentators were critical of the US response. Before the State Department announced the trip's cancellation, Zhu Feng, executive dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, said, "If Blinken were to cancel his trip to Beijing because of the balloon, I'd see it as him using that as an excuse to do what he had wanted to do anyway — not visit China." Some analysts stated that if Blinken had continued with the visit, it would have likely led to more vehement criticism of the administration's approach to China and poor public relations in Congress, where there is bipartisan support for a hard line against Beijing. Missed opportunities Despite the low expectations for Blinken's trip, he had planned to bring up the cases of American citizens whom the United States claims have been wrongfully detained in China. He also wanted to convince Beijing to work together to stop the flow of fentanyl, two areas where any progress would have created momentum that could be used in other discussions. Ivan Kanapathy, a former deputy senior director for Asia for the White House National Security Council, stated that he anticipated a series of congressional hearings on China that would make it difficult for Blinken to justify a trip to Beijing unless he can secure the release of American detainees or return with another significant prize. China also wants a stable relationship with the US so it can focus on its economy, which has been hurt by the zero-COVID policy. It was widely believed that Blinken's trip to China, which would have marked the first time a secretary of state had visited the country since 2018, was primarily an effort to develop strategies for coping with future crises. The next crisis may not be far off given that the new House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, is likely to travel to Taiwan this year. "Overall, I do believe that the Biden administration would like to reschedule because there are a lot of issues on the table and there is a real chance of a thaw. "However, the balloon incident probably means that the thaw is postponed indefinitely," said Derek Grossman, an analyst with the RAND Corporation for the Indo-Pacific. However, the Brookings Institution's China expert, Ryan Hass, stated on Twitter that China's balloon operation had at least given the United States and China a chance to work out rules of engagement in space and at high altitudes, where the militaries of the two countries will come into increasingly close contact. "We should not miss this chance to dramatically minimise danger and avoid future PRC spy balloon intrusions of US airspace," Hass said. https://twitter.com/ryanl_hass/status/1621580471506292743?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1621580471506292743%7Ctwgr%5E392f0c4655bc2c756323fe59b082cb9d154f2bf2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.geo.tv%2Flatest%2F468990-china-balloon-soaring-over-us-deflates-hopes-for-diplomatic-thaw
WASHINGTON: Not only did the top US diplomat’s planned trip to Beijing get derailed by the political uproar caused by a rumored Chinese spy balloon over the United States, but it also threatens to scuttle efforts by both countries to stabilize their increasingly tense relationship.
The United States’ reaction to what appears to be a poorly timed spying operation will have long-term effects on efforts to stabilize already-low ties. A number of US lawmakers are requesting that Democrat President Joe Biden hold China accountable for what they consider an unacceptable violation of US sovereignty.
Policy analysts said the administration could be hard-pressed to quickly revive the trip unless China offers serious gestures of goodwill. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he would be prepared to visit Beijing “when conditions allow.”
China’s “laughable alibi” that the aircraft was an errant weather balloon, according to Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for Asia under Barack Obama at the time, was not helpful.
“There’s no guarantee the two sides can successfully resurrect the ‘Bali’ momentum,” Russel said, referring to the November meeting in Indonesia between Vice President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, where they agreed to increase communications. “This incident has soured the atmosphere and hardened positions.”
In August of last year, when the then-President of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan, ties between the two superpowers deteriorated to their lowest point in decades, prompting Beijing to hold military drills near the Chinese-claimed island.
Since then, the Biden administration has stated that it intends to establish a “floor” for the relationship and prevent rivalry from developing into conflict.
However, Republicans, who control the House and have been quick to criticize Biden regarding the balloon and ask how it was allowed into US airspace, are already working on ways to investigate potential threats from the United States’ top geopolitical rival.
CALLS TO SHOTDOWN The Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, demanded to know why the administration had not shot down the balloon on Friday. He claimed that the president had allowed the balloon to pose “a direct and ongoing national security threat to the US homeland.”
Despite the fact that such operations in recent years have been carried out from internationally recognized waters and airspace, China has frequently voiced its displeasure with US ships and aircraft monitoring its expanding military.
China’s mood was also pessimistic in light of the balloon. The government expressed regret over the erroneous course taken by an “airship,” which was used for civilian meteorological and other scientific research. However, some domestic Chinese commentators were critical of the US response.
Before the State Department announced the trip’s cancellation, Zhu Feng, executive dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University, said, “If Blinken were to cancel his trip to Beijing because of the balloon, I’d see it as him using that as an excuse to do what he had wanted to do anyway — not visit China.”
Some analysts stated that if Blinken had continued with the visit, it would have likely led to more vehement criticism of the administration’s approach to China and poor public relations in Congress, where there is bipartisan support for a hard line against Beijing.
Missed opportunities Despite the low expectations for Blinken’s trip, he had planned to bring up the cases of American citizens whom the United States claims have been wrongfully detained in China. He also wanted to convince Beijing to work together to stop the flow of fentanyl, two areas where any progress would have created momentum that could be used in other discussions.
Ivan Kanapathy, a former deputy senior director for Asia for the White House National Security Council, stated that he anticipated a series of congressional hearings on China that would make it difficult for Blinken to justify a trip to Beijing unless he can secure the release of American detainees or return with another significant prize.
China also wants a stable relationship with the US so it can focus on its economy, which has been hurt by the zero-COVID policy.
It was widely believed that Blinken’s trip to China, which would have marked the first time a secretary of state had visited the country since 2018, was primarily an effort to develop strategies for coping with future crises. The next crisis may not be far off given that the new House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, is likely to travel to Taiwan this year.
“Overall, I do believe that the Biden administration would like to reschedule because there are a lot of issues on the table and there is a real chance of a thaw. “However, the balloon incident probably means that the thaw is postponed indefinitely,” said Derek Grossman, an analyst with the RAND Corporation for the Indo-Pacific.
However, the Brookings Institution’s China expert, Ryan Hass, stated on Twitter that China’s balloon operation had at least given the United States and China a chance to work out rules of engagement in space and at high altitudes, where the militaries of the two countries will come into increasingly close contact.
“We should not miss this chance to dramatically minimise danger and avoid future PRC spy balloon intrusions of US airspace,” Hass said.
1/ Given the news of @SecBlinken's postponement of his trip to Beijing due to the PRC's spy satellite violating US airspace, a question now turns to what would be needed from Beijing in order to justify turning planning for the visit back on. A few quick thoughts -(short thread).
— Ryan Hass (@ryanl_hass) February 3, 2023
